What’s going to happen after the fall of Assad?
The new Syrian leadership they will break relations with Iran and Hezbollah, let alone those with Russia and China?
The country will he sink into anarchy, leaving thereby the power to the extremists, who do not like them to fill the institutional vacuum – before initiating a totalitarian regime?
The answer is obvious: no one knows, and any attempt would be inherently absurd prediction. The premise itself is uncertain for now, the imminent fall of the Assad regime is far from assured. In its last stronghold, the Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi was defended by foreign mercenaries; Assad, he will be protected until death – and perhaps even beyond – by his followers in the raw (Alawite Muslims, while like him), who control the Syrian security forces and make up about 1/5th of the population (about 4.5 million people).
Assad is not yet defeated
In recent days, the rebels are gaining ground – and power: they killed some of his closest military advisers to Assad, recruited several deserters from the forefront, and captured several important border posts, including the Turkish border – which could facilitate the supply of weapons (as well as the provision of more lethal weapons).
But this trend – also encouraging is they – does not necessarily mean that the Syrian government is preparing to surrender, on the contrary: at the beginning of last week, the head of Israeli military intelligence reported that the Syrian army had redeployed all its forces based in the Golan Heights to Damascus (among other cities), and this probably in order to strengthen internal security. These forces include elite soldiers and many tanks. In other words, Assad is perhaps just tap into the most devastating arsenal.
Can we assume that all is going well in Bashar Assad?
No. One way or another, his fall is probably a matter of months or even weeks. But in light of recent information, this fall probably will not mean a cessation of hostilities.
The passions are exacerbated too, the stakes too high for both sides agree to make peace. Come a time when their main cause fade, giving way to a simple struggle for survival, it may already be the case. On one side or the other, the fighters continue to fight because they know that at the least decline, the other side kill them – as a preventive or simple revenge.