2015 Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map – a guide

Terrorism and political violence present unique challenges to any company with a global footprint and understanding your human and commercial exposures is a key aspect of risk mitigation. Now in its fifth year, Aon’s Terrorism and Political Violence Map, continues to help clients to more closely consider and evaluate their exposures to these unique risks.
The findings underline the complexity of this risk and the breadth of
potential impacts – property damage, business interruption, casualty and
liability risk. Where organisations have concerns or would like to validate
their current terrorism strategy, we would encourage them to connect with their broker to discuss how their insurance strategy will respond to recent trends in terrorism as highlighted by the map- Neil Henderson

Terrorism, Kidnap & Ransom Team Leader
Key Findings
In 2015, we rated 21 countries at reduced risk and 13 at increased risk.
The global trend is therefore a net improvement in political violence risks
at a country by country level. This marks the second year in row where
the balance is more countries improving than deteriorating (in 2014, 56
countries were at reduced risk and only four at increased risk).
The less positive findings this year are largely due to increased terrorism
threats in the West and a more adverse geopolitical situation in Eastern
Europe, the Middle East and East Asia. More countries had conflict perils
added (11) than removed (5) and we added more perils for conflict than
any other risk type, reflecting an increasingly dangerous and uncertain
geopolitical environment. Six of the conflict additions were Former Soviet
Union countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the greatest number of high to severe risk
countries (16), although is also the largest region (42% of the region
rated high to severe risk, making is less risky overall than the Middle East,
South Asia and North Africa). Nearly 80% of all terrorist attacks in this
period occurred in just two countries – Nigeria and Somalia. Southern
Africa remains a cluster of low risk.
The removal of the civil unrest peril in 11 countries points to an improved
domestic stability situation in a variety of countries, reflecting some
positive trickle down risk effects of economic recovery.
Measured in terms of concentration of risk (regions with the highest
percentage of high or severe risk countries), the riskiest regions are in
order of greatest risk: South Asia, North Africa, Middle East, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Western Countries.
Western countries saw the greatest number of country risk rating
increases, mainly due to terrorism threats. Nine countries were rated at
increased risk, and none at decreased risk.
Latin America is the region with the most positive overall results, securing
reduced unrest risk and reduced terrorism risk ratings thanks to counter-
terrorism progress and moves to end long running conflicts in Colombia
and Peru, although ongoing socio-economic issues remain.


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